•Understanding the Data: This chart tracks how the S&P 500 performed during past U.S. government shutdowns. While shutdowns often dominate the headlines, market returns during these periods have varied widely. • A Look at the Numbers: In 7 of the past 10 shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 actually generated a positive return, showing that markets have often looked past the noise. • Investment Implications: The data highlights that short-term political events have not consistently dictated market direction. For investors, it's a reminder that tuning out the noise has historically been more effective than reacting to it.
• Length of Historical Bull Markets: This chart shows the length of past S&P 500 bull markets, measured in calendar days since 1949. While each cycle varies, history reminds us that bull markets can endure for years. Staying invested during these periods of growth has been a key driver of long-term portfolio outcomes and overall market recovery. • A Recent Look at the Data: We have been in a bull market for 1,073 days since the 10/12/2022 low. This compares to the average length of 1,943 days in all bull markets since 1949. • Investment Implications: For investors, the chart highlights how the duration of bull markets has varied over time, with some lasting several years.
• S&P500 Drawdown Frequency: The chart shows how often the S&P 500 has been in drawdowns of varying sizes since 1950, measured from prior all-time highs. It highlights that periods of pullback are a normal part of market history. • A Look at the Data: The S&P 500 has spent more than 60% of the time at a 3% drawdown or greater, and over half the time at a 5% drawdown or greater. Even deeper declines, such as 10% or more, have occurred a meaningful share of the time. • Investment Implications: These historical drawdown frequencies provide context for market volatility. This shows that declines are common and often temporary within long-term investing.
• What Do Rate Cuts Mean For The Stock Market? The chart shows S&P 500 performance in the 12 months following the start of Fed rate cutting cycles since 1957. While individual outcomes differ by cycle, rate cuts have historically coincided with near double-digit 12 month forward returns, on average. • A Look at the Data: Across all cycles, the average 12-month return following the first rate cut has been +9.7%. Results range widely, with some periods delivering strong gains and others showing declines. • Investment Implications: History suggests that rate cuts do not guarantee higher returns, but they have often been followed by positive market performance on average.
